A ZDNet writer, Christopher Dawson, believes that Flash will continue to rise and that Apple will eventually begin to support Flash. Maybe, but I’m doubtful.
As I’ve repeated probably a hundred times, tablet computers are the future. Most people don’t need anything more than a simple and inexpensive device to check email, browse the web, maybe play a few games. That fact aside I think that tablets will become more and more popular and we’ll start seeing people with more diverse needs, needs that future tablets will be capable of doing. So we’ll continue to see the rise of tablet computers. The question becomes, who will be supplying those tablets. I admit that Android based phones are becoming increasingly popular, but my guess is that tablets will be even more popular than they are.
It seems that everyone either is selling a tablet or will be coming out with one soon, but really the market belongs to Apple at the moment. It’s obviously a challenge for new tablet makers to compete with Apple, we haven’t seen any option that is as inexpensive as the iPad, though some have competitive prices if you count subsidies (which are paid for in subscription costs later by the user). If any company wants to compete with Apple, they have to live with the price range that is defined, without subsidies, just like Apple did, which may mean they leave out a few features.
But as Adrian Kingsley-Hughes, another ZDNet writer pointed out, this is a difficult thing to do. Apple’s prices are just too low for other flash banner waiving competitors to compete. Their only hope is to simplify the hardware and make their devices cheaper—which doesn’t seem to be happening anytime soon. By the time that tablet competitors realize what they need to do Apple will have an even greater lead than they have now, meaning that Apple wins. Apple doesn’t have to support flash because they will be the industry standard that everyone is developing for.
In other words: Flash-allowing tablet systems are too expensive. Apple will continue to sell better than other competitors because they have the right prices. Apple will continue their lead and remaing the industry standard. The industry standard still won’t support Flash. Developers will develop with HTML5 and other non-Flash tools to reach a larger audience. Flash will die because it isn’t supported.
Now I could be wrong, if tablet suppliers want to, they can build a more competitively priced product that blows Apple out of the water, but now, do you really think that’s going to happen?